Health

Influenza Forecast Model

Seasonal influenza epidemics are a major public health concern with millions of cases of severe illness yearly in the US and large economic impact. Studies have shown a link between flu and humidity, a link particularly strong in temperate regions where seasonal variation is most pronounced. In Serman et al. (2022), AIRS data is used to illuminate the relationship between low humidity and the outbreak of flu in the U.S.

AIRS humidity is a crucial component of an influenza outbreak prediction system developed at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The goal of the model is to predict both short-term and overall flu season trends and characteristics including 1-4 week changes, onset, duration, timing of peaks and relative severity of the season, and provide results in a format useful for decision makers.

The JPL flu model is being assembled in collaboration with the Los Angeles County Acute Communicable Disease Control (LAC ACDC) with the goal of providing a predictive tool that can be used by the LAC ACDC and other organizations. Flu forecasts have become an important part of decision support for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and a version of the JPL flu forecasting system is being prepared to provide results according to CDC specifications. The global nature and consistency of AIRS data allow for the extension of the system outside the U.S.

Serman, E., Thrastarson, H. Th., Franklin, M., & Teixeira, J. (2022). Spatial variation in humidity and the onset of seasonal influenza across the contiguous United States. GeoHealth, 6, e2021GH000469. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GH000469